City spending, analytics & setting priorities

John Detweiler has submitted a letter to the editor regarding the City of Corvallis' desire to reopen Fire Station #5. The letter reads:

As I have said many times, there will never be enough money to fund everything. Therefore, we need to set priorities and make choices. Moreover, we need to support those choices with appropriate analytical work.

The City Council is considering reopening fire station five. Yet, the Corvallis Fire Department Response Time Simulation Study, dated April 25, 2012, tells us that we gained an average ten seconds in EMS response time and lost eleven seconds in average fire initial response time when we closed station five - a trivial amount of time. Are we conveniently ignoring this study now?

The Police Department is still trying to justify more officers by saying comparable cities have so many sworn officers per population, therefore Corvallis should have the same number. The underlying assumption being that the demand for service in the comparable cities is equal to that in Corvallis. Nothing is being said about the demand for service in Corvallis that Matrix Consulting Group quantified in 2008. Considering the growth in demand for service because of the OSU expansion, that quantification needs to be updated. Moreover, we need to establish the current relationship between the response time and the number of officers we deploy as I did in 2009 with the Matrix data - see my web site: www.peak.org/~detweij.

Any reduction in, or failure to increase, services will have adverse effects on public safety. But, since we can't afford everything, risk needs to be balanced against costs. That is what good governing is all about.

John H. Detweiler

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Tax Levy 02-74 Discussed at City Club

CORVALLIS TIDBITS, 4/11/2011 - "Monday April 11th the Corvallis City Club hosted a forum on the proposed tax Levy, measure 02-74, scheduled for a vote on May 17, 2011. John Detweiler, statistician and former candidate for Corvallis City Council presented the case for voting no on Measure 02-74. Karyle Butcher, Corvallis Budget Commission member and retired Oregon State University Librarian, presented the case for voting yes on Measure 02-74." Read more at Corvallis TidBits...

John Detweiler spoke at the Benton County AFP Special Community Meeting tonight and he will repeat his presentation for the Benton County Republican Women on Monday, April 25th. Read More......

Detweiler offers more on the Corvallis levy (02-74)

Research and letter by John H. Detweiler - submitted to the Corvallis Gazette-Times 3/21/2011 (Published by the GT on 3/25/2011 as Letter: Passing city’s levy won’t solve Corvallis’ real fiscal problems.

The levy that will appear on the May ballot will not solve our budget problems. Local households and local business cannot support our local government. Therefore we must reduce costs. Personnel costs, amounting to 55% of current costs, are good place to start.

The mean total compensation (salary and benefits) per full time equivalent for the FY 10-11 budget year is $100,000. In five years, the mean total compensation has gone from $80,000 to $100,000. The total salary and benefits increases over this period are: 5.29% and 7.44% per year respectively.

In 2008, the ratios of Corvallis employee salary to Corvallis citizen salary and Salem government worker salary were 1.57 and 1.31 respectively -- higher than I had thought they would be. The notion in setting pay rates is to pay sufficient compensation to attract and retain qualified competent employees. The total package does not have to be excessive.

Negotiations need to be conducted with our unions to constrain and reduce total compensation. And, if we have to take a strike, so be it. If reasonable contracts cannot be worked out, we can contract with private business to perform the commercially oriented functions and lay off employees - foregoing their services -- we can't afford. Details and the sources of these numbers can be found at www.peak.org/~detweij.

This levy, and the ones that will be required in the future if we don't get our costs under control, will not solve our budget problems. Join thinking citizens in voting against this levy.

John H. Detweiler
Corvallis
www.peak.org/~detweij

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Voters will have chance to meet Republican candidates Monday

See Corvallis Gazette-Times article HERE.

What: Republican Candidates' Fair & No-host Luncheon (optional)
When: Monday, September 27th
Where: King Tin Restaurant, 1857 N.W. Ninth St., Corvallis
Time: 11:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Candidates attending:

• Jim Huffman for U.S. Senate
  
• Rose Cook for State Representative, Dist. 16
  
• Jerry Jackson for County Commissioner, Position 1
  
• Mark O'Brien for Corvallis City Council, Ward 1
  
• John Detweiler for Corvallis City Council, Ward 6
  
• Rick Schroff for Corvallis City Council, Ward 7

See you there! --bc Read More......

JDH Letter: City Council should maintain $6 million in reserve

Letter submitted to the Corvallis Gazette-Times on 6/30/2010 by John H. Detweiler - As I observed in a previous letter, we have a budget crisis. Expenses are up, revenues are down, and our reserves of all operating property tax funds combined are disappearing. At the very least, the next City Council must stop the drop in reserves by reducing spending before our reserves are gone.

One of our expenditures is "transfers out". Transfers include funding for capital projects as defined in the Capital Improvement Program (CIP). Another expenditure is departmental "special projects". These are one-time expenditures, actual projects, new equipment, or replacements for worn out equipment. However no matter how equipment is funded, we need to consider stretching out or suspending such expenditures. We must also be careful that we don't acquire improvements or equipment with future high operating and maintenance costs.

The Council should make plans to maintain enough reserves so there is enough of a buffer for the Council to react to unanticipated unfavorable events before running out of money. In my opinion, our reserve target should be $6 million because, looking at the rate of decrease in revenues minus expenses, the Council should be able to get its act together in sufficient time to avoid running out of money. Anytime the reserve is less than $6 million, we should reduce expenses and stretch out investments to build the reserve to more than $6 million. Anytime the reserve is more than $6 million, we could fund more services. Read More......

LETTER: (Council punts on 2010-11 budget)

LETTER TO THE EDITOR (Submitted to the Corvallis Gazette-Times, 2/17/2010 by John H. Detweiler) - In the February 17th Gazette-Times we were treated to an above-the-fold article telling us that the Corvallis City Council is punting on the 2010-11 budget. The Council is going to proceed with programs such as community sustainability and give proportional cuts to police and fire. ∴ Sooner or later, Corvallis is going to have to establish priorities and make choices. This will not be a pleasant experience; but there is no other choice. The alternatives are for us to not fund basic services (e.g. police and fire) or for all of us to ride our own hobbyhorses all the way to bankruptcy. ∴ The purpose of local government is to provide quality services to the most people possible with the money that is available.

To establish priorities, we need to know how often citizens use the services provided and what their perceptions are of the relative quality of these services. I estimated service usage and relative perceptions of quality with the raw data collected for the 2009 Corvallis Citizens Attitude Survey. My analysis can be found at http://www.peak.org/~detweij.

Services that are used more often should receive more funds. Tax money should flow to the services that are used the most often by the most people where the quality can be improved and users cannot be identified in a cost effective manner. Where the users can be cost effectively identified, user fees should be imposed to recoup the cost of these services.

To continue on our present path is foolhardy.

John H. Detweiler Read More......

JHD Letter: (Untitled regarding Measures 66 & 67)

SUBMITTED TO: CORVALLIS GAZETTE-TIMES/LETTERS by John Detweiler - We are about to vote on raising taxes on corporations and the rich. As I said on this page on November 30th, the people who will have to pay the increased taxes make economic decisions in their best interests as they see them. Taxes have been raised in other places at other times creating an incentive for people to take action to reduce the effects of the increased taxes. People living in the Boston area have been moving to New Hampshire for years to avoid Massachusetts' taxes. People retiring in New York move to places like Texas for lower taxes -- and better weather. California has been losing business to Nevada and Arizona for years because of high taxes. People are moving out of Maryland to avoid the recently imposed millionaires tax. The results will be the same in Oregon.

Responsible citizens know they must live within their means. They prioritize their needs and wants over the long run and stop spending when they run out of money. Oregon can't seem to act responsibly. It has been known for many years that Oregon's revenues fluctuate with the business cycle. The Legislature needs to spend less in good times, putting serious money into the rainy-day-fund, so there is money for the bad times.

John H. Detweiler (www.peak.org/~detweij)
Corvallis Read More......